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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on January 2021. Comprising 13 analysts.
Consensus |
Range |
|||||||||||
|
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY20 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | ||||
| Actual | Actual | Estimate | Estimate | Estimate | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | ||
|
Revenue £m |
2,837 |
3,248 |
3,905 |
4,071 |
4,076 |
3,877 | 3,945 | 3,871 | 4,188 | 3,681 | 4,235 | |
|
> organic growth (%) |
-3.1% |
8.2% |
15.5% |
1.9% |
0.2% |
14.7% | 16.0% | 0.2% | 4.6% | -4.9% | 3.8% | |
|
Underlying trading profit 'UTP' (£m) |
93 |
120 |
163 |
166 |
170 |
160.0 | 165 | 162.6 | 173.3 | 154 | 184 | |
|
> margin (%) |
3.3% |
3.7% |
4.2% |
4.1% |
4.2% |
4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | |
|
Net finance costs |
(13.9) | (21.8) | (26.7) | (26.5) | (22.6) | (27.2) | (25.0) | (27.7) | (23.0) | (27.3) | (15.6) | |
|
Underlying PBT |
79 |
98 |
136 |
139 |
147 |
93.2 | 137.7 | 51.2 | 144.0 | 130.9 | 161.3 | |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(20.6) |
(24.4) |
(33.4) |
(34.5) |
(37.4) |
(34.8) | (31.0) | (38.0) | (29.5) | (41.9) | (31.0) | |
|
Underlying PAT |
59 |
74 |
103 |
105 |
110 |
61.5 | 137.0 | 13.2 | 140.0 | 96.6 | 151.0 | |
|
Non-underlying items |
23.6 |
13.2 |
6.3 |
0.5 |
(0.4) |
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|
Amortisation of tangibles arising |
(4.3) |
(7.5) |
(10.3) |
(10.2) |
(10.1) |
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|
Non-underlying tax |
11.8 |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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|
PAT before exceptionals |
90 |
77 |
99 |
95 |
99 |
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|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS'(p) |
5.2 |
6.2 |
8.2 |
8.3 |
8.7 |
7.98 | 8.46 | 7.96 | 8.67 | 7.47 | 9.58 | |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
- |
- |
1.2 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 0.00 | 2.67 | |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
16 |
62 |
121 |
84 |
94 |
101.4 | 151.7 | 57.3 | 125.8 | 73.1 | 128.9 | |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(173) |
(215) |
(103) |
(100) |
(40) | (144) | (81) | (159) | (61) | (210) | 48 | |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.