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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on December 2020. Comprising 13 analysts.
Consensus |
Range |
|||||||||||
|
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY20 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | ||||
| Actual | Actual | Estimate | Estimate | Estimate | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | ||
|
Revenue £m |
2,837 |
3,248 |
3,901 |
3,858 |
3,904 |
3,876 | 3,945 | 3,742 | 4,129 | 3,681 | 4,029 | |
|
> organic growth (%) |
-3.1% |
8.2% |
14.6% |
0.3% |
2.9% |
13.0% | 16.0% | -3.7% | 14.9% | -4.9% | 14.9% | |
|
Underlying trading profit 'UTP' (£m) |
93 |
120 |
163 |
162 |
170 |
160.4 | 165 | 154.1 | 171 | 154 | 187 | |
|
> margin (%) |
3.3% |
3.7% |
4.2% |
4.2% |
4.4% |
4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | |
|
Net finance costs |
(13.9) | (21.8) | (26.9) | (25.1) | (22.5) | (28.0) | (25.2) | (27.5) | (21.4) | (27.5) | (12.5) | |
|
Underlying PBT |
79 |
98 |
136 |
137 |
148 |
133.4 | 138 | 127.9 | 145.9 | 130.9 | 174.3 | |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(20.6) |
(24.4) |
(33.4) |
(33.7) |
(37.2) |
(34.9) | (31.2) | (36.5) | (28.2) | (43.6) | (33.7) | |
|
Underlying PAT |
59 |
74 |
102 |
103 |
111 |
100.1 | 105 | 98 | 109.5 | 96.6 | 130.7 | |
|
Non-underlying items |
23.6 |
13.2 |
6.3 |
0.8 |
(0.1) |
0.0 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | (8.5) | 5.0 | |
|
Amortisation of tangibles arising |
(4.3) |
(7.5) |
(10.3) |
(10.2) |
(10.1) |
(24.1) | (7.5) | (24.1) | (6.3) | (24.1) | (5.5) | |
|
Non-underlying tax |
11.8 |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
|
PAT before exceptionals |
90 |
77 |
98 |
94 |
100 |
0.0 | 127.5 | 0.0 | 103.1 | 0.0 | 125.2 | |
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS'(p) |
5.2 |
6.2 |
8.2 |
8.2 |
8.8 |
8.0 | 8.39 | 7.78 | 8.71 | 7.47 | 10.40 | |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
- |
- |
1.5 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
0.0 | 2.50 | 1.20 | 2.34 | 1.20 | 3.01 | |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
16 |
62 |
93 |
83 |
96 |
68.1 | 109.1 | 70.4 | 106 | 73.1 | 110.7 | |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(173) |
(215) |
(133) |
(76) |
(10) | (161) | (104) | (116) | (31) | (69) | 50 | |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.