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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on July 2023. Comprising 11 analysts.

 

 

CONSENSUS

 

RANGE

 

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

 

FY23

FY24

FY25

 

Actual

Actual

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

 

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Revenue (£m)

3,885

4,425

4,534

4,764

4,872

5,081

 

4,492

4,851

4,476

5,028

4,603

5,254

> organic growth (%)

16.2%

10.2%

-4.4%

3.0%

2.4%

4.5%

 

-4.7%

5.7%

-3.8%

5.8%

3.0%

5.7%

Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m)

163

229

237

243

246

262

 

232

248

218

264

232

280

> margin (%)

4.2%

5.2%

5.2%

5.1%

5.0%

5.2%

 

5.1%

5.2%

4.9%

5.3%

4.9%

5.5%

Net finance costs

(25.9)

(24.0)

(20.4)

(25.1)

(27.4)

(25.1)

 

(26.8)

(24.5)

(30.4)

(22.5)

(32.0)

(17.5)

Underlying PBT

137

205

217

218

218

237

 

205

223

191

233

206

255

Tax on UTP and NFC

(31.2)

(48.6)

(47.9)

(53.8)

(54.5)

(59.4)

 

(56.0)

(47.8)

(60.8)

(47.7)

(67.6)

(51.5)

Underlying PAT

106

156

169

164

164

178

 

156

167

143

178

155

196

Non-underlying items

12.6

4.5

4.2

(1.6)

(1.5)

(1.5)

 

(24.0)

10.0

(24.0)

10.0

(24.0)

10.0

Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition

(9.0)

(16.0)

(21.6)

(20.3)

(17.5)

(17.7)

 

(27.0)

(5.0)

(30.0)

5.3

(32.0)

5.3

Non underlying tax

12.3

160.5

5.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

PAT before exceptionals

122

305

157

142

145

158

 

120

166

125

178

143

196

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p)

8.4

12.6

13.9

14.4

14.5

16.2

 

13.0

14.7

12.3

15.5

13.3

16.5

Dividend per share (p)

1.4

2.4

2.9

3.5

3.9

4.5

 

3.2

4.2

3.3

4.8

3.3

5.5

Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

135

190

159

141

158

168

 

130

171

142

170

130

184

Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(58)

(178)

(204)

(196)

(82)

34

 

(230)

(187)

(103)

(68)

(31)

85

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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