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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on January 2021. Comprising 13 analysts.

 

Consensus

 

Range

 

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

  FY20 FY21 FY22
  Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate   Low High Low High Low High

Revenue £m

2,837

3,248

3,905

4,071

4,076

  3,877 3,945 3,871 4,188 3,681 4,235

 > organic growth (%)

-3.1%

8.2%

15.5%

1.9%

0.2%

  14.7% 16.0% 0.2% 4.6% -4.9% 3.8%

Underlying trading profit 'UTP' (£m)

93

120

163

166

170

  160.0 165 162.6 173.3 154 184

 > margin (%)

3.3%

3.7%

4.2%

4.1%

4.2%

  4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 4.2% 3.8% 4.5%

 Net finance costs

(13.9) (21.8) (26.7) (26.5) (22.6)   (27.2) (25.0) (27.7) (23.0) (27.3) (15.6)

Underlying PBT

79

98

136

139

147

  93.2 137.7 51.2 144.0 130.9 161.3

 Tax on UTP and NFC

(20.6)

(24.4)

(33.4)

(34.5)

(37.4)

  (34.8) (31.0) (38.0) (29.5) (41.9) (31.0)

Underlying PAT

59

74

103

105

110

  61.5 137.0 13.2 140.0 96.6 151.0

 Non-underlying items

23.6

13.2

6.3

0.5

(0.4)

             

 Amortisation of tangibles arising

(4.3)

(7.5)

(10.3)

(10.2)

(10.1)

             

 Non-underlying tax

11.8

(3.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

             

PAT before exceptionals

90

77

99

95

99

             

 Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS'(p)

5.2

6.2

8.2

8.3

8.7

  7.98 8.46 7.96 8.67 7.47 9.58

 Dividend per share (p)

-

-

1.2

1.8

2.0

  0.00 2.50 0.00 2.38 0.00 2.67

 Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

16

62

121

84

94

  101.4 151.7 57.3 125.8 73.1 128.9

 Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(173)

(215)

(103)

(100)

(40)   (144) (81) (159) (61) (210) 48

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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