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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on July 2021. Comprising 13 analysts.
Consensus |
Range |
|||||||||||
|
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | ||||
| Actual | Actual | Estimate | Estimate | Estimate | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | ||
|
Revenue £m |
2,837 |
3,248 |
4,324 |
4,189 |
4,372 |
4,261 | 4,406 | 3,792 | 4,471 | 3,982 | 4,679 | |
|
> organic growth (%) |
-3.1% |
8.2% |
6.6% |
-5.1% |
3.7% |
5.7% | 7.9% | -13.0% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 6.0% | |
|
Underlying trading profit 'UTP' (£m) |
93 |
120 |
200 |
195 |
211 |
196.9 | 203.4 | 188.5 | 211.9 | 201 | 231 | |
|
> margin (%) |
3.3% |
3.7% |
4.6% |
4.7% |
4.8% |
4.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | |
|
Net finance costs |
(13.9) | (21.8) | (28.6) | (28.7) | (26.1) | (36.4) | (27.1) | (36.1) | (24.0) | (34.0) | (19.3) | |
|
Underlying PBT |
79 |
98 |
172 |
166 |
185 |
164.3 | 176.3 | 154.0 | 182.2 | 170.3 | 204.3 | |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(20.6) |
(24.4) |
(42.6) |
(42.6) |
(47.1) |
(44.1) | (39.3) | (48.3) | (38.5) | (56.2) | (42.5) | |
|
Underlying PAT |
59 |
74 |
129 |
124 |
138 |
123.6 | 172.9 | 115.5 | 170.9 | 127.7 | 190.7 | |
|
Non-underlying items |
23.6 |
13.2 |
(1.4) |
(1.1) |
(0.9) |
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|
Amortisation of tangibles arising |
(4.3) |
(7.5) |
(9.2) |
(9.0) |
(8.9) |
|||||||
|
Non-underlying tax |
11.8 |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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|
PAT before exceptionals |
90 |
77 |
119 |
114 |
128 |
|||||||
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS'(p) |
5.2 |
6.2 |
10.4 |
10.0 |
11.1 |
9.90 | 11.07 | 9.40 | 10.80 | 10.39 | 11.94 | |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
- |
- |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
1.50 | 2.95 | 1.84 | 3.20 | 2.02 | 4.10 | |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
16 |
62 |
97 |
99 |
118 |
62.7 | 112.6 | 10.0 | 125.1 | 93.2 | 138.9 | |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(173) |
(215) |
(267) |
(203) |
(121) | (292) | (232) | (282) | (151) | (216) | (51) | |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.