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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on July 2021. Comprising 13 analysts.

 

Consensus

 

Range

 

FY18

FY19

FY21

FY22

FY23

  FY21 FY22 FY23
  Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate   Low High Low High Low High

Revenue £m

2,837

3,248

4,324

4,189

4,372

  4,261 4,406 3,792 4,471 3,982 4,679

 > organic growth (%)

-3.1%

8.2%

6.6%

-5.1%

3.7%

  5.7% 7.9% -13.0% -1.0% 0.0% 6.0%

Underlying trading profit 'UTP' (£m)

93

120

200

195

211

  196.9 203.4 188.5 211.9 201 231

 > margin (%)

3.3%

3.7%

4.6%

4.7%

4.8%

  4.5% 4.8% 4.4% 5.1% 4.6% 5.2%

 Net finance costs

(13.9) (21.8) (28.6) (28.7) (26.1)   (36.4) (27.1) (36.1) (24.0) (34.0) (19.3)

Underlying PBT

79

98

172

166

185

  164.3 176.3 154.0 182.2 170.3 204.3

 Tax on UTP and NFC

(20.6)

(24.4)

(42.6)

(42.6)

(47.1)

  (44.1) (39.3) (48.3) (38.5) (56.2) (42.5)

Underlying PAT

59

74

129

124

138

  123.6 172.9 115.5 170.9 127.7 190.7

 Non-underlying items

23.6

13.2

(1.4)

(1.1)

(0.9)

             

 Amortisation of tangibles arising

(4.3)

(7.5)

(9.2)

(9.0)

(8.9)

             

 Non-underlying tax

11.8

(3.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

             

PAT before exceptionals

90

77

119

114

128

             

 Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS'(p)

5.2

6.2

10.4

10.0

11.1

  9.90 11.07 9.40 10.80 10.39 11.94

 Dividend per share (p)

-

-

2.4

2.5

2.8

  1.50 2.95 1.84 3.20 2.02 4.10

 Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

16

62

97

99

118

  62.7 112.6 10.0 125.1 93.2 138.9

 Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(173)

(215)

(267)

(203)

(121)   (292) (232) (282) (151) (216) (51)

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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