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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on November 2021. Comprising 13 analysts.
Consensus |
Range |
|||||||||||
|
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | ||||
| Actual | Actual | Estimate | Estimate | Estimate | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | ||
|
Revenue £m |
2,837 |
3,248 |
4,331 |
4,176 |
4,356 |
4,294 | 4,406 | 3,910 | 4,323 | 4,067 | 4,532 | |
|
> organic growth (%) |
-3.1% |
8.2% |
6.8% |
-5.0% |
4.2% |
5.7% | 8.2% | -11.0% | -1.7% | 2.2% | 6.0% | |
|
Underlying trading profit 'UTP' (£m) |
93 |
120 |
201 |
196 |
212 |
197 | 209 | 188 | 212 | 200 | 231 | |
|
> margin (%) |
3.3% |
3.7% |
4.6% |
4.7% |
4.9% |
4.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | |
|
Net finance costs |
(13.9) | (21.8) | (27.9) | (28.4) | (25.8) | (29.0) | (26.8) | (36.1) | (24.0) | (34.0) | (18.0) | |
|
Underlying PBT |
79 |
98 |
173 |
168 |
186 |
169 | 183 | 154 | 182 | 170 | 204 | |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(20.6) |
(24.4) |
(42.9) |
(43.2) |
(47.8) |
(44.3) | (41.1) | (49.7) | (38.5) | (56.2) | (42.6) | |
|
Underlying PAT |
59 |
74 |
130 |
125 |
138 |
127 | 173 | 115 | 171 | 128 | 191 | |
|
Non-underlying items |
23.6 |
13.2 |
(0.5) |
(1.6) |
(1.5) |
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|
Amortisation of tangibles arising |
(4.3) |
(7.5) |
(10.6) |
(10.4) |
(10.3) |
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|
Non-underlying tax |
11.8 |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||||
|
PAT before exceptionals |
90 |
77 |
119 |
113 |
126 |
|||||||
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS'(p) |
5.2 |
6.2 |
10.5 |
10.1 |
11.1 |
10.3 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 11.9 | |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
- |
- |
2.6 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
2.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 4.1 | |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
16 |
62 |
114 |
113 |
123 |
84 | 138 | 93 | 126 | 93 | 148 | |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(173) |
(215) |
(253) |
(178) |
(96) | (282) | (210) | (216) | (153) | (136) | (46) | |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.