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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Serco consensus as at 25 June 2025.

Consensus excludes any analyst forecasts that have not been updated since our 2024 full year results on 27 February 2025.

Some analysts have included the acquisition of MT&S in their forecasts, while others are waiting until it completes. This consensus therefore includes a mix of forecasts including and excluding MT&S.

Serco guidance will be given excluding MT&S until the acquisition completes.

Were all analyst forecasts to exclude MT&S, we estimate consensus revenue would be 2025: £4.9bn, 2026: £4.95bn and underlying operating profit would be 2025: £261m, 2026: £272m.

 

CONSENSUS

 

RANGE

 

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27

 

FY25

FY26

FY27

 

Actual

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

 

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Revenue (£m)

4,874

4,787

4,862

5,042

5,264

 

4,782

4,955

4,930

5,210

5,112

5,466

> organic growth (%)

4.4%

(2.5%)

-0.1%

2.1%

4.8%

 

(0.7%)

0.4%

0.2%

4.4%

3.7%

6.0%

Underlying operating profit (£m)

249

274

263

285

303

 

257

272

266

298

288

320

> margin (%)

5.1%

5.7%

5.4%

5.7%

5.8%

 

5.3%

5.5%

5.4%

5.9%

5.6%

6.0%

Net finance costs

(24.6)

(33.1)

(47)

(52)

(50)

 

(52)

(40)

(59)

(48)

(62)

0

Underlying PBT

224

240

216

233

253

 

212

224

216

249

236

274

Tax on UOP and NFC

(50.8)

(60.4)

(53)

(57)

(62)

 

(56)

(46)

(62)

(50)

(71)

0

Underlying PAT

173

180

163

176

191

 

159

170

166

187

180

203

Non-underlying items

0.0

0.0

(5)

0

0

 

(5)

0

0

0

0

0

Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition

(30.9)

(28.9)

(31)

(32)

(29)

 

(45)

(26)

(53)

(25)

(32)

0

Non underlying tax

8.5

7.9

0

0

0

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

PAT before exceptionals

150.9

159.0

135

149

168

 

113

144

125

165

157

181

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p)

15.36

16.67

15.57

16.9

18.2

 

15.2

16.3

15.3

18.0

16.1

19.6

Dividend per share (p)

3.4

4.2

4.6

5.2

5.7

 

4.2

5.0

4.4

6.0

4.6

6.3

Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

209.2

227.5

131.0

154

161

 

108

150

135

193

132

201

Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(109)

(100)

(263)

(165)

(61)

 

(345)

(231)

(238)

(101)

(186)

42

If you have any questions, please email the Serco Investor Relations team.

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