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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Serco consensus as at 26 February 2025.
Consensus excludes any analyst forecasts that have not been updated since our announcement on 8 November.
Some analysts have included the acquisition of MT&S in their forecasts, while others are waiting until it completes. This consensus therefore includes a mix of forecasts including and excluding MT&S.
Serco guidance will be given excluding MT&S until the acquisition completes.
Were all analyst forecasts to exclude MT&S, we estimate consensus underlying operating profit would be 2024: £270m, 2025: £260m, 2026: £272m.
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|
CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
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|
|
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|||
|
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
|
Revenue (£m) |
4,425 |
4,534 |
4,874 |
4,793 |
4,862 |
5,050 |
|
4,748 |
4,839 |
4,738 |
4,949 |
4,698 |
5,263 |
|
> organic growth (%) |
10.2% |
(4.4%) |
4.4% |
(2.7%) |
(0.5%) |
2.3% |
|
(3.4%) |
(2.0%) |
(2.3%) |
0.8% |
(0.8%) |
5.0% |
|
Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m) |
229 |
237 |
249 |
270 |
263 |
285 |
|
269 |
273 |
254 |
271 |
253 |
308 |
|
> margin (%) |
5.2% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
5.6% |
5.4% |
5.7% |
|
5.6% |
5.7% |
5.4% |
5.5% |
5.4% |
6.0% |
|
Net finance costs |
(24) |
(20) |
(25) |
(35) |
(47) |
(49) |
|
(35) |
(34) |
(52) |
(39) |
(61) |
(35) |
|
Underlying PBT |
205 |
217 |
224 |
235 |
218 |
237 |
|
234 |
237 |
215 |
220 |
215 |
249 |
|
Tax on UOP and NFC |
(49) |
(48) |
(51) |
(59) |
(54) |
(59) |
|
(59) |
(58) |
(55) |
(53) |
(62) |
(54) |
|
Underlying PAT |
156 |
169 |
173 |
176 |
163 |
178 |
|
176 |
178 |
161 |
165 |
161 |
187 |
|
Non-underlying items |
5 |
4 |
0 |
(2) |
0 |
0 |
|
(20) |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(16) |
(22) |
(31) |
(35) |
(35) |
(36) |
|
(55) |
(26) |
(55) |
(26) |
(55) |
(26) |
|
Non underlying tax |
161 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
PAT before exceptionals |
305 |
157 |
149 |
144 |
132 |
147 |
|
135 |
156 |
118 |
144 |
131 |
164 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
12.6 |
13.9 |
15.4 |
16.3 |
15.8 |
17.2 |
|
16.2 |
16.5 |
15.3 |
16.2 |
15.6 |
18.2 |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
2.4 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
|
3.7 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
4.2 |
6.0 |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
190 |
159 |
209 |
172 |
136 |
155 |
|
167 |
190 |
125 |
166 |
134 |
203 |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(178) |
(204) |
(109) |
(146) |
(244) |
(145) |
|
(153) |
(143) |
(353) |
(60) |
(279) |
41 |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.