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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on February 2023. Comprising 11 analysts.

 

 

CONSENSUS

 

RANGE

 

FY18

FY19

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

 

FY22

FY23

FY24

 

Actual

Actual

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

 

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Revenue (£m)

2,837

3,248

4,425

4,512

4,635

4,825

 

4,468

4,641

4,476

4,735

4,603

5,095

> organic growth (%)

-3.1%

8.2%

10.2%

-4.3%

0.7%

4.3%

 

-5.7%

-2.2%

-3.8%

3.9%

3.0%

8.3%

Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m)

93

120

229

235

235

249

 

232

236

218

243

232

272

> margin (%)

3.3%

3.7%

5.2%

5.2%

5.1%

5.2%

 

5.1%

5.3%

4.9%

5.2%

4.9%

5.3%

Net finance costs

(13.9)

(21.8)

(24.0)

(22.7)

(25.2)

(23.7)

 

(26.8)

(22.0)

(27.1)

(24.5)

(26.0)

(21.5)

Underlying PBT

79

98

205

212

210

225

 

205

213

191

219

206

246

Tax on UTP and NFC

(20.6)

(24.4)

(48.6)

(50.5)

(52.0)

(56.4)

 

(53.2)

(47.1)

(54.0)

(47.7)

(61.6)

(51.5)

Underlying PAT

59

74

156

162

158

169

 

156

165

143

165

155

185

Non-underlying items

23.6

13.2

4.5

0.3

(0.3)

(0.3)

 

(13.2)

10.0

(13.2)

10.0

(13.2)

10.0

Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition

(4.3)

(7.5)

(16.0)

(16.2)

(16.2)

(16.2)

 

(20.0)

(5.0)

(20.0)

(5.0)

(20.0)

(5.0)

Non underlying tax

11.8

(3.0)

160.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

PAT before exceptionals

90

77

305

146

141

152

 

136

165

134

161

132

185

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p)

5.2

6.2

12.8

13.3

13.3

14.7

 

13.0

13.6

12.3

13.9

13.1

15.6

Dividend per share (p)

-

-

2.4

3.0

3.5

3.9

 

2.8

3.6

3.2

4.2

3.3

4.5

Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

16

62

190

145

146

163

 

140

161

122

201

120

201

Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(173)

(215)

(178)

(208)

(120)

(11)

 

(233)

(177)

(161)

(80)

(54)

26

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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