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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on December 2020. Comprising 13 analysts.

 

Consensus

 

Range

 

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

  FY20 FY21 FY22
  Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate   Low High Low High Low High

Revenue £m

2,837

3,248

3,901

3,858

3,904

  3,876 3,945 3,742 4,129 3,681 4,029

 > organic growth (%)

-3.1%

8.2%

14.6%

0.3%

2.9%

  13.0% 16.0% -3.7% 14.9% -4.9% 14.9%

Underlying trading profit 'UTP' (£m)

93

120

163

162

170

  160.4 165 154.1 171 154 187

 > margin (%)

3.3%

3.7%

4.2%

4.2%

4.4%

  4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 4.8%

 Net finance costs

(13.9) (21.8) (26.9) (25.1) (22.5)   (28.0) (25.2) (27.5) (21.4) (27.5) (12.5)

Underlying PBT

79

98

136

137

148

  133.4 138 127.9 145.9 130.9 174.3

 Tax on UTP and NFC

(20.6)

(24.4)

(33.4)

(33.7)

(37.2)

  (34.9) (31.2) (36.5) (28.2) (43.6) (33.7)

Underlying PAT

59

74

102

103

111

  100.1 105 98 109.5 96.6 130.7

 Non-underlying items

23.6

13.2

6.3

0.8

(0.1)

  0.0 16.5 0.0 5.0 (8.5) 5.0

 Amortisation of tangibles arising

(4.3)

(7.5)

(10.3)

(10.2)

(10.1)

  (24.1) (7.5) (24.1) (6.3) (24.1) (5.5)

 Non-underlying tax

11.8

(3.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

  0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PAT before exceptionals

90

77

98

94

100

  0.0 127.5 0.0 103.1 0.0 125.2

 Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS'(p)

5.2

6.2

8.2

8.2

8.8

  8.0 8.39 7.78 8.71 7.47 10.40

 Dividend per share (p)

-

-

1.5

2.0

2.3

  0.0 2.50 1.20 2.34 1.20 3.01

 Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

16

62

93

83

96

  68.1 109.1 70.4 106 73.1 110.7

 Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(173)

(215)

(133)

(76)

(10)   (161) (104) (116) (31) (69) 50

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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