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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on August 2022. Comprising 12 analysts.
|
|
CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
||||||||||
|
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
|
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
|||
|
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
|
Revenue (£m) |
2,837 |
3,248 |
4,425 |
4,386 |
4,532 |
4,748 |
|
4,347 |
4,441 |
4,382 |
4,680 |
4,594 |
5,030 |
|
> organic growth (%) |
-3.1% |
8.2% |
10.2% |
-4.4% |
2.8% |
4.9% |
|
-6.0% |
-2.8% |
-3.8% |
4.8% |
3.0% |
8.6% |
|
Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m) |
93 |
120 |
229 |
226 |
232 |
250 |
|
224 |
230 |
213 |
244 |
234 |
272 |
|
> margin (%) |
3.3% |
3.7% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
5.1% |
5.3% |
|
5.1% |
5.3% |
4.8% |
5.4% |
4.9% |
5.5% |
|
Net finance costs |
(13.9) |
(21.8) |
(24.0) |
(25.0) |
(23.4) |
(21.5) |
|
(26.8) |
(23.0) |
(26.7) |
(17.7) |
(27.8) |
(12.7) |
|
Underlying PBT |
79 |
98 |
205 |
201 |
208 |
229 |
|
197 |
206 |
186 |
221 |
208 |
252 |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(20.6) |
(24.4) |
(48.6) |
(49.4) |
(52.0) |
(57.9) |
|
(51.5) |
(43.3) |
(57.4) |
(46.6) |
(64.3) |
(52.1) |
|
Underlying PAT |
59 |
74 |
156 |
151 |
156 |
171 |
|
148 |
157 |
140 |
168 |
156 |
189 |
|
Non-underlying items |
23.6 |
13.2 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
|
(1.3) |
10.0 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(4.3) |
(7.5) |
(16.0) |
(15.1) |
(15.1) |
(15.1) |
|
(18.8) |
(5.0) |
(18.8) |
(5.0) |
(18.8) |
(5.0) |
|
Non underlying tax |
11.8 |
(3.0) |
160.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
PAT before exceptionals |
90 |
77 |
305 |
137 |
143 |
157 |
|
133 |
157 |
135 |
163 |
151 |
177 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
5.2 |
6.2 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
13.5 |
14.8 |
|
12.1 |
12.9 |
12.0 |
14.3 |
13.5 |
15.3 |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
- |
- |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
|
2.7 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
16 |
62 |
190 |
131 |
144 |
159 |
|
118 |
165 |
118 |
170 |
126 |
186 |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(173) |
(215) |
(178) |
(199) |
(126) |
(44) |
|
(202) |
174 |
(109) |
92 |
(52) |
93 |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.