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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on July 2024. Comprising 11 analysts.
|
|
CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
||||||||||
|
|
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|||
|
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
|
Revenue (£m) |
4,425 |
4,534 |
4,874 |
4,816 |
4,944 |
5,138 |
|
4,748 |
4,926 |
4,788 |
5,210 |
4,957 |
5,459 |
|
> organic growth (%) |
10.2% |
-4.4% |
4.4% |
-2.6% |
2.0% |
3.6% |
|
-3.0% |
-1.2% |
0.6% |
4.5% |
1.1% |
5.2% |
|
Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m) |
229 |
237 |
249 |
271 |
282 |
296 |
|
270 |
276 |
274 |
289 |
274 |
316 |
|
> margin (%) |
5.2% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
5.6% |
5.7% |
5.8% |
|
5.5% |
5.7% |
5.3% |
6.0% |
5.1% |
6.3% |
|
Net finance costs |
(24.0) |
(20.4) |
(24.6) |
(35.0) |
(35.2) |
(31.8) |
|
(35.4) |
(34.6) |
(41.2) |
(32.5) |
(39.5) |
(25.8) |
|
Underlying PBT |
205 |
217 |
224 |
236 |
246 |
265 |
|
235 |
240 |
239 |
254 |
241 |
282 |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(48.6) |
(47.9) |
(50.8) |
(58.2) |
(61.3) |
(65.8) |
|
(60.1) |
(52.7) |
(63.6) |
(56.3) |
(70.4) |
(60.3) |
|
Underlying PAT |
156 |
169 |
173 |
177 |
185 |
199 |
|
176 |
182 |
178 |
191 |
181 |
211 |
|
Non-underlying items |
4.5 |
4.2 |
0.0 |
(4.8) |
(4.4) |
(4.4) |
|
(40.0) |
0.0 |
(40.0) |
0.0 |
(40.0) |
0.0 |
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(16.0) |
(21.6) |
(30.9) |
(25.1) |
(24.0) |
(23.2) |
|
(55.2) |
37.7 |
(55.2) |
45.2 |
(55.2) |
52.6 |
|
Non underlying tax |
160.5 |
5.8 |
6.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
PAT before exceptionals |
305 |
157 |
149 |
148 |
157 |
171 |
|
106 |
215 |
118 |
226 |
136 |
233 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
12.6 |
13.9 |
15.4 |
16.3 |
17.6 |
19.3 |
|
16.2 |
16.6 |
16.9 |
18.2 |
16.5 |
20.2 |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
2.4 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
5.5 |
|
3.7 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
6.4 |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
190 |
159 |
209 |
155 |
175 |
184 |
|
146 |
190 |
142 |
204 |
154 |
208 |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(178) |
(204) |
(109) |
(167) |
(43) |
81 |
|
(190) |
(149) |
(104) |
6 |
(43) |
176 |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.