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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on November 2021. Comprising 13 analysts.

 

Consensus

 

Range

 

FY18

FY19

FY21

FY22

FY23

  FY21 FY22 FY23
  Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate   Low High Low High Low High

Revenue £m

2,837

3,248

4,331

4,176

4,356

  4,294 4,406 3,910 4,323 4,067 4,532

 > organic growth (%)

-3.1%

8.2%

6.8%

-5.0%

4.2%

  5.7% 8.2% -11.0% -1.7% 2.2% 6.0%

Underlying trading profit 'UTP' (£m)

93

120

201

196

212

  197 209 188 212 200 231

 > margin (%)

3.3%

3.7%

4.6%

4.7%

4.9%

  4.5% 4.8% 4.4% 5.1% 4.6% 5.2%

 Net finance costs

(13.9) (21.8) (27.9) (28.4) (25.8)   (29.0) (26.8) (36.1) (24.0) (34.0) (18.0)

Underlying PBT

79

98

173

168

186

  169 183 154 182 170 204

 Tax on UTP and NFC

(20.6)

(24.4)

(42.9)

(43.2)

(47.8)

  (44.3) (41.1) (49.7) (38.5) (56.2) (42.6)

Underlying PAT

59

74

130

125

138

  127 173 115 171 128 191

 Non-underlying items

23.6

13.2

(0.5)

(1.6)

(1.5)

             

 Amortisation of tangibles arising

(4.3)

(7.5)

(10.6)

(10.4)

(10.3)

             

 Non-underlying tax

11.8

(3.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

             

PAT before exceptionals

90

77

119

113

126

             

 Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS'(p)

5.2

6.2

10.5

10.1

11.1

  10.3 11.3 9.4 10.8 10.4 11.9

 Dividend per share (p)

-

-

2.6

2.7

3.1

  2.4 3.0 2.4 3.2 2.6 4.1

 Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

16

62

114

113

123

  84 138 93 126 93 148

 Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(173)

(215)

(253)

(178)

(96)   (282) (210) (216) (153) (136) (46)

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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