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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Serco consensus as at 19 June 2026.
|
|
CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
|||||||||
|
|
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
FY27 |
|
FY26 |
FY27 |
||||
|
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
||
Revenue (£m) |
4,874 |
4,787 |
4,877 |
5,036 |
5,235 |
|
5,004 |
5,090 |
5,179 |
5,272 |
||
|
> organic growth (%) |
4.4% |
(2.5%) |
0.9% |
2.7% |
4.0% |
|
2.1% |
3.2% |
3.1% |
4.7% |
||
Underlying operating profit (£m) |
249 |
274 |
272 |
301 |
314 |
|
300 |
302 |
309 |
324 |
||
|
> margin (%) |
5.1% |
5.7% |
5.6% |
6.0% |
6.0% |
|
5.9% |
6.0% |
5.9% |
6.1% |
||
|
Net finance costs |
(24.6) |
(33.1) |
(45) |
(52) |
(49) |
|
(52) |
(50) |
(54) |
(45) |
||
Underlying PBT |
224 |
240 |
227 |
249 |
265 |
|
248 |
250 |
256 |
275 |
||
|
Tax on UOP and NFC |
(50.8) |
(60.4) |
(52) |
(61) |
(65) |
|
(63) |
(52) |
(71) |
(52) |
||
Underlying PAT |
173 |
180 |
175 |
188 |
201 |
|
186 |
199 |
192 |
218 |
||
|
Non-underlying items |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
||
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(30.9) |
(28.9) |
(30) |
(21) |
(21) |
|
(31) |
30 |
(31) |
30 |
||
|
Non underlying tax |
8.5 |
7.9 |
(4) |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
PAT before exceptionals |
150.9 |
159.0 |
146 |
173 |
186 |
|
151 |
217 |
160 |
223 |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
15.36 |
16.67 |
16.93 |
18.6 |
19.9 |
|
18.3 |
18.7 |
19.2 |
20.5 |
||
|
Dividend per share (p) |
3.4 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
5.6 |
|
4.7 |
6.0 |
5.0 |
7.0 |
||
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
209.2 |
227.5 |
219.3 |
162 |
172 |
|
142 |
173 |
130 |
200 |
||
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(109) |
(100) |
(206) |
(162) |
(47) |
|
(168) |
(150) |
(97) |
(11) |
||
If you have any questions, please email the Serco Investor Relations team.