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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on February 2024. Comprising 11 analysts.

 

 

CONSENSUS

 

RANGE

 

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

 

FY23

FY24

FY25

 

Actual

Actual

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

 

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Revenue (£m)

3,885

4,425

4,534

4,799

4,785

4,974

 

4,663

4,835

4,577

4,941

4,683

5,212

> organic growth (%)

16.2%

10.2%

-4.4%

4.4%

-1.5%

3.2%

 

2.9%

6.4%

-5.1%

3.7%

0.0%

5.1%

Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m)

163

229

237

245

257

272

 

237

248

237

265

254

283

> margin (%)

4.2%

5.2%

5.2%

5.1%

5.4%

5.5%

 

5.0%

5.3%

5.1%

5.5%

5.3%

5.6%

Net finance costs

(25.9)

(24.0)

(20.4)

(25.0)

(31.7)

(29.9)

 

(26.1)

(23.3)

(33.4)

(24.5)

(37.4)

(19.4)

Underlying PBT

137

205

217

220

225

242

 

212

224

213

232

231

251

Tax on UTP and NFC

(31.2)

(48.6)

(47.9)

(51.7)

(55.6)

(60.2)

 

(57.0)

(48.8)

(58.0)

(50.7)

(62.6)

(56.6)

Underlying PAT

106

156

169

169

170

182

 

162

173

160

176

173

188

Non-underlying items

12.6

4.5

4.2

15.5

(1.7)

(1.4)

 

(24.0)

51.2

(24.0)

10.0

(24.0)

10.0

Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition

(9.0)

(16.0)

(21.6)

(15.1)

(14.6)

(14.1)

 

(24.0)

27.0

(24.0)

30.0

(24.0)

32

Non underlying tax

12.3

160.5

5.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

PAT before exceptionals

122

305

157

169

153

166

 

129

197

127

201

146

213

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p)

8.4

12.6

13.9

15.0

15.2

16.7

 

14.5

15.3

14.5

15.6

15.6

16.9

Dividend per share (p)

1.4

2.4

2.9

3.4

3.9

4.6

 

3.2

3.7

3.7

4.4

4.0

5.0

Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

135

190

159

170

145

169

 

153

183

140

167

160

188

Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(58)

(178)

(204)

(164)

(83)

41

 

(193)

(150)

(105)

(46)

(26)

105

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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