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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on August 2022. Comprising 12 analysts.

 

 

CONSENSUS

 

RANGE

 

FY18

FY19

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

 

FY22

FY23

FY24

 

Actual

Actual

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

 

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Revenue (£m)

2,837

3,248

4,425

4,386

4,532

4,748

 

4,347

4,441

4,382

4,680

4,594

5,030

> organic growth (%)

-3.1%

8.2%

10.2%

-4.4%

2.8%

4.9%

 

-6.0%

-2.8%

-3.8%

4.8%

3.0%

8.6%

Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m)

93

120

229

226

232

250

 

224

230

213

244

234

272

> margin (%)

3.3%

3.7%

5.2%

5.1%

5.1%

5.3%

 

5.1%

5.3%

4.8%

5.4%

4.9%

5.5%

Net finance costs

(13.9)

(21.8)

(24.0)

(25.0)

(23.4)

(21.5)

 

(26.8)

(23.0)

(26.7)

(17.7)

(27.8)

(12.7)

Underlying PBT

79

98

205

201

208

229

 

197

206

186

221

208

252

Tax on UTP and NFC

(20.6)

(24.4)

(48.6)

(49.4)

(52.0)

(57.9)

 

(51.5)

(43.3)

(57.4)

(46.6)

(64.3)

(52.1)

Underlying PAT

59

74

156

151

156

171

 

148

157

140

168

156

189

Non-underlying items

23.6

13.2

4.5

1.1

1.3

1.3

 

(1.3)

10.0

0.0

10.0

0.0

10.0

Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition

(4.3)

(7.5)

(16.0)

(15.1)

(15.1)

(15.1)

 

(18.8)

(5.0)

(18.8)

(5.0)

(18.8)

(5.0)

Non underlying tax

11.8

(3.0)

160.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

PAT before exceptionals

90

77

305

137

143

157

 

133

157

135

163

151

177

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p)

5.2

6.2

12.8

12.8

13.5

14.8

 

12.1

12.9

12.0

14.3

13.5

15.3

Dividend per share (p)

-

-

2.4

3.2

3.5

3.9

 

2.7

3.8

2.9

4.3

3.2

4.6

Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

16

62

190

131

144

159

 

118

165

118

170

126

186

Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(173)

(215)

(178)

(199)

(126)

(44)

 

(202)

174

(109)

92

(52)

93

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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