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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on July 2023. Comprising 11 analysts.
|
|
CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
||||||||||
|
|
FY20 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
|
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
|||
|
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
|
Revenue (£m) |
3,885 |
4,425 |
4,534 |
4,764 |
4,872 |
5,081 |
|
4,492 |
4,851 |
4,476 |
5,028 |
4,603 |
5,254 |
|
> organic growth (%) |
16.2% |
10.2% |
-4.4% |
3.0% |
2.4% |
4.5% |
|
-4.7% |
5.7% |
-3.8% |
5.8% |
3.0% |
5.7% |
|
Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m) |
163 |
229 |
237 |
243 |
246 |
262 |
|
232 |
248 |
218 |
264 |
232 |
280 |
|
> margin (%) |
4.2% |
5.2% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
5.0% |
5.2% |
|
5.1% |
5.2% |
4.9% |
5.3% |
4.9% |
5.5% |
|
Net finance costs |
(25.9) |
(24.0) |
(20.4) |
(25.1) |
(27.4) |
(25.1) |
|
(26.8) |
(24.5) |
(30.4) |
(22.5) |
(32.0) |
(17.5) |
|
Underlying PBT |
137 |
205 |
217 |
218 |
218 |
237 |
|
205 |
223 |
191 |
233 |
206 |
255 |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(31.2) |
(48.6) |
(47.9) |
(53.8) |
(54.5) |
(59.4) |
|
(56.0) |
(47.8) |
(60.8) |
(47.7) |
(67.6) |
(51.5) |
|
Underlying PAT |
106 |
156 |
169 |
164 |
164 |
178 |
|
156 |
167 |
143 |
178 |
155 |
196 |
|
Non-underlying items |
12.6 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
(1.6) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
|
(24.0) |
10.0 |
(24.0) |
10.0 |
(24.0) |
10.0 |
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(9.0) |
(16.0) |
(21.6) |
(20.3) |
(17.5) |
(17.7) |
|
(27.0) |
(5.0) |
(30.0) |
5.3 |
(32.0) |
5.3 |
|
Non underlying tax |
12.3 |
160.5 |
5.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
PAT before exceptionals |
122 |
305 |
157 |
142 |
145 |
158 |
|
120 |
166 |
125 |
178 |
143 |
196 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
8.4 |
12.6 |
13.9 |
14.4 |
14.5 |
16.2 |
|
13.0 |
14.7 |
12.3 |
15.5 |
13.3 |
16.5 |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
1.4 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
|
3.2 |
4.2 |
3.3 |
4.8 |
3.3 |
5.5 |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
135 |
190 |
159 |
141 |
158 |
168 |
|
130 |
171 |
142 |
170 |
130 |
184 |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(58) |
(178) |
(204) |
(196) |
(82) |
34 |
|
(230) |
(187) |
(103) |
(68) |
(31) |
85 |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.