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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on February 2023. Comprising 11 analysts.
|
|
CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
||||||||||
|
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
|
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
|||
|
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
|
Revenue (£m) |
2,837 |
3,248 |
4,425 |
4,512 |
4,635 |
4,825 |
|
4,468 |
4,641 |
4,476 |
4,735 |
4,603 |
5,095 |
|
> organic growth (%) |
-3.1% |
8.2% |
10.2% |
-4.3% |
0.7% |
4.3% |
|
-5.7% |
-2.2% |
-3.8% |
3.9% |
3.0% |
8.3% |
|
Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m) |
93 |
120 |
229 |
235 |
235 |
249 |
|
232 |
236 |
218 |
243 |
232 |
272 |
|
> margin (%) |
3.3% |
3.7% |
5.2% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
5.2% |
|
5.1% |
5.3% |
4.9% |
5.2% |
4.9% |
5.3% |
|
Net finance costs |
(13.9) |
(21.8) |
(24.0) |
(22.7) |
(25.2) |
(23.7) |
|
(26.8) |
(22.0) |
(27.1) |
(24.5) |
(26.0) |
(21.5) |
|
Underlying PBT |
79 |
98 |
205 |
212 |
210 |
225 |
|
205 |
213 |
191 |
219 |
206 |
246 |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(20.6) |
(24.4) |
(48.6) |
(50.5) |
(52.0) |
(56.4) |
|
(53.2) |
(47.1) |
(54.0) |
(47.7) |
(61.6) |
(51.5) |
|
Underlying PAT |
59 |
74 |
156 |
162 |
158 |
169 |
|
156 |
165 |
143 |
165 |
155 |
185 |
|
Non-underlying items |
23.6 |
13.2 |
4.5 |
0.3 |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
|
(13.2) |
10.0 |
(13.2) |
10.0 |
(13.2) |
10.0 |
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(4.3) |
(7.5) |
(16.0) |
(16.2) |
(16.2) |
(16.2) |
|
(20.0) |
(5.0) |
(20.0) |
(5.0) |
(20.0) |
(5.0) |
|
Non underlying tax |
11.8 |
(3.0) |
160.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
PAT before exceptionals |
90 |
77 |
305 |
146 |
141 |
152 |
|
136 |
165 |
134 |
161 |
132 |
185 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
5.2 |
6.2 |
12.8 |
13.3 |
13.3 |
14.7 |
|
13.0 |
13.6 |
12.3 |
13.9 |
13.1 |
15.6 |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
- |
- |
2.4 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
|
2.8 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
4.2 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
16 |
62 |
190 |
145 |
146 |
163 |
|
140 |
161 |
122 |
201 |
120 |
201 |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(173) |
(215) |
(178) |
(208) |
(120) |
(11) |
|
(233) |
(177) |
(161) |
(80) |
(54) |
26 |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.