Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

CONSENSUS

RANGE

FY18

FY19

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY22

FY23

FY24

Actual

Actual

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Revenue (£m)

2,837

3,248

4,425

4,162

4,331

4,523

4,077

4,244

4,240

4,446

4,472

4,622

> organic growth (%)

-3.1%

8.2%

10.2%

-7.9%

4.1%

4.6%

-11.0%

-5.9%

2.4%

6.0%

3.6%

5.0%

Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m)

93

120

229

198

214

230

190

207

204

225

220

239

> margin (%)

3.3%

3.7%

5.2%

4.8%

4.9%

5.1%

4.6%

5.1%

4.7%

5.2%

4.8%

5.3%

Net finance costs

(13.9)

(21.8)

(24.0)

(26.1)

(23.9)

(21.0)

(36.1)

(23.9)

(34.0)

(17.7)

(27.3)

(12.7)

Underlying PBT

79

98

205

172

190

209

154

181

170

202

201

217

Tax on UTP and NFC

(20.6)

(24.4)

(48.6)

(43.4)

(48.2)

(54.2)

(48.1)

(38.5)

(55.2)

(42.6)

(61.8)

(50.6)

Underlying PAT

59

74

156

129

142

155

115

137

128

155

150

156

Non-underlying items

23.6

13.2

4.5

(2.7)

(2.6)

0.0

Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition

(4.3)

(7.5)

(16.0)

(13.9)

(13.8)

(15.2)

Non underlying tax

11.8

(3.0)

160.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

PAT before exceptionals

90

77

305

112

126

139

Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p)

5.2

6.2

12.8

10.8

12.1

13.3

9.4

11.1

10.4

12.5

12.2

13.2

Dividend per share (p)

-

-

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

2.1

3.8

2.3

4.2

2.5

4.2

Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

16

62

190

108

128

142

96

140

93

157

115

171

Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(173)

(215)

(178)

(250)

(137)

(77)

(223)

(140)

(124)

128

(74)

5