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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Serco consensus as at 25 June 2025.
Consensus excludes any analyst forecasts that have not been updated since our 2024 full year results on 27 February 2025.
Some analysts have included the acquisition of MT&S in their forecasts, while others are waiting until it completes. This consensus therefore includes a mix of forecasts including and excluding MT&S.
Serco guidance will be given excluding MT&S until the acquisition completes.
Were all analyst forecasts to exclude MT&S, we estimate consensus revenue would be 2025: £4.9bn, 2026: £4.95bn and underlying operating profit would be 2025: £261m, 2026: £272m.
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CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
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FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
FY27 |
|
FY25 |
FY26 |
FY27 |
||||
|
|
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
|
Revenue (£m) |
4,874 |
4,787 |
4,862 |
5,042 |
5,264 |
|
4,782 |
4,955 |
4,930 |
5,210 |
5,112 |
5,466 |
|
|
> organic growth (%) |
4.4% |
(2.5%) |
-0.1% |
2.1% |
4.8% |
|
(0.7%) |
0.4% |
0.2% |
4.4% |
3.7% |
6.0% |
|
Underlying operating profit (£m) |
249 |
274 |
263 |
285 |
303 |
|
257 |
272 |
266 |
298 |
288 |
320 |
|
|
> margin (%) |
5.1% |
5.7% |
5.4% |
5.7% |
5.8% |
|
5.3% |
5.5% |
5.4% |
5.9% |
5.6% |
6.0% |
|
|
Net finance costs |
(24.6) |
(33.1) |
(47) |
(52) |
(50) |
|
(52) |
(40) |
(59) |
(48) |
(62) |
0 |
|
Underlying PBT |
224 |
240 |
216 |
233 |
253 |
|
212 |
224 |
216 |
249 |
236 |
274 |
|
|
Tax on UOP and NFC |
(50.8) |
(60.4) |
(53) |
(57) |
(62) |
|
(56) |
(46) |
(62) |
(50) |
(71) |
0 |
|
Underlying PAT |
173 |
180 |
163 |
176 |
191 |
|
159 |
170 |
166 |
187 |
180 |
203 |
|
|
Non-underlying items |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(5) |
0 |
0 |
|
(5) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(30.9) |
(28.9) |
(31) |
(32) |
(29) |
|
(45) |
(26) |
(53) |
(25) |
(32) |
0 |
|
|
Non underlying tax |
8.5 |
7.9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
PAT before exceptionals |
150.9 |
159.0 |
135 |
149 |
168 |
|
113 |
144 |
125 |
165 |
157 |
181 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
15.36 |
16.67 |
15.57 |
16.9 |
18.2 |
|
15.2 |
16.3 |
15.3 |
18.0 |
16.1 |
19.6 |
|
|
Dividend per share (p) |
3.4 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
|
4.2 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
6.0 |
4.6 |
6.3 |
|
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
209.2 |
227.5 |
131.0 |
154 |
161 |
|
108 |
150 |
135 |
193 |
132 |
201 |
|
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(109) |
(100) |
(263) |
(165) |
(61) |
|
(345) |
(231) |
(238) |
(101) |
(186) |
42 |
|
If you have any questions, please email the Serco Investor Relations team.