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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on November 2023. Comprising 11 analysts.

 

 

CONSENSUS

 

RANGE

 

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

 

FY23

FY24

FY25

 

Actual

Actual

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

 

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Revenue (£m)

3,885

4,425

4,534

4,797

4,887

5,099

 

4,663

4,835

4,664

4,941

4,808

5,212

> organic growth (%)

16.2%

10.2%

-4.4%

4.6%

2.7%

4.3%

 

4.0%

6.4%

1.0%

4.1%

2.9%

5.1%

Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m)

163

229

237

246

248

265

 

245

250

237

264

253

280

> margin (%)

4.2%

5.2%

5.2%

5.1%

5.1%

5.2%

 

5.1%

5.3%

4.9%

5.4%

4.9%

5.5%

Net finance costs

(25.9)

(24.0)

(20.4)

(24.9)

(28.7)

(26.5)

 

(26.0)

(23.3)

(36.2)

(23.5)

(36.0)

(19.4)

Underlying PBT

137

205

217

221

220

238

 

219

225

210

233

231

250

Tax on UTP and NFC

(31.2)

(48.6)

(47.9)

(52.0)

(54.4)

(59.2)

 

(56.8)

(50.6)

(58.3)

(49.7)

(62.5)

(56.1)

Underlying PAT

106

156

169

169

165

179

 

162

173

156

175

173

188

Non-underlying items

12.6

4.5

4.2

15.5

(1.4)

(1.4)

 

(24.0)

51.2

(24.0)

10.0

(24.0)

10.0

Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition

(9.0)

(16.0)

(21.6)

(21.1)

(21.3)

(21.2)

 

(27.0)

(5.0)

(30.0)

(5.0)

(32.0)

(5.0)

Non underlying tax

12.3

160.5

5.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

PAT before exceptionals

122

305

157

164

143

157

 

128

193

120

167

137

183

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p)

8.4

12.6

13.9

15.0

14.8

16.5

 

14.6

15.3

14.0

15.7

15.4

16.8

Dividend per share (p)

1.4

2.4

2.9

3.4

3.9

4.5

 

3.2

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.0

5.0

Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

135

190

159

158

148

170

 

149

196

132

158

155

178

Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(58)

(178)

(204)

(173)

(66)

55

 

(193)

(169)

(99)

(46)

(2)

105

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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