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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on May 2022. Comprising 11 analysts.
|
CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
||||||||||
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
|
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
|||
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Revenue (£m) |
2,837 |
3,248 |
4,425 |
4,162 |
4,331 |
4,523 |
|
4,077 |
4,244 |
4,240 |
4,446 |
4,472 |
4,622 |
> organic growth (%) |
-3.1% |
8.2% |
10.2% |
-7.9% |
4.1% |
4.6% |
|
-11.0% |
-5.9% |
2.4% |
6.0% |
3.6% |
5.0% |
Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m) |
93 |
120 |
229 |
198 |
214 |
230 |
|
190 |
207 |
204 |
225 |
220 |
239 |
> margin (%) |
3.3% |
3.7% |
5.2% |
4.8% |
4.9% |
5.1% |
|
4.6% |
5.1% |
4.7% |
5.2% |
4.8% |
5.3% |
Net finance costs |
(13.9) |
(21.8) |
(24.0) |
(26.1) |
(23.9) |
(21.0) |
|
(36.1) |
(23.9) |
(34.0) |
(17.7) |
(27.3) |
(12.7) |
Underlying PBT |
79 |
98 |
205 |
172 |
190 |
209 |
|
154 |
181 |
170 |
202 |
201 |
217 |
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(20.6) |
(24.4) |
(48.6) |
(43.4) |
(48.2) |
(54.2) |
|
(48.1) |
(38.5) |
(55.2) |
(42.6) |
(61.8) |
(50.6) |
Underlying PAT |
59 |
74 |
156 |
129 |
142 |
155 |
|
115 |
137 |
128 |
155 |
150 |
156 |
Non-underlying items |
23.6 |
13.2 |
4.5 |
(2.7) |
(2.6) |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(4.3) |
(7.5) |
(16.0) |
(13.9) |
(13.8) |
(15.2) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Non underlying tax |
11.8 |
(3.0) |
160.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PAT before exceptionals |
90 |
77 |
305 |
112 |
126 |
139 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
5.2 |
6.2 |
12.8 |
10.8 |
12.1 |
13.3 |
|
9.4 |
11.1 |
10.4 |
12.5 |
12.2 |
13.2 |
Dividend per share (p) |
- |
- |
2.4 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
|
2.1 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
4.2 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
16 |
62 |
190 |
108 |
128 |
142 |
|
96 |
140 |
93 |
157 |
115 |
171 |
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(173) |
(215) |
(178) |
(250) |
(137) |
(77) |
|
(223) |
(140) |
(124) |
128 |
(74) |
5 |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.