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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc
Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
Last updated on November 2024. Comprising 11 analysts.
Updated market consensus following our announcement on 8 November will be provided when available.
|
|
CONSENSUS |
|
RANGE |
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|
|
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|||
|
|
Actual |
Actual |
Actual |
Estimate |
Estimate |
Estimate |
|
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
|
Revenue (£m) |
4,425 |
4,534 |
4,874 |
4,803 |
4,907 |
5,101 |
|
4,748 |
4,926 |
4,757 |
5,156 |
4,937 |
5,438 |
|
> organic growth (%) |
10.2% |
-4.4% |
4.4% |
-2.7% |
1.8% |
3.6% |
|
-3.1% |
-1.2% |
0.0% |
4.5% |
1.0% |
5.2% |
|
Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m) |
229 |
237 |
249 |
271 |
282 |
297 |
|
267 |
275 |
273 |
288 |
274 |
317 |
|
> margin (%) |
5.2% |
5.2% |
5.1% |
5.6% |
5.7% |
5.8% |
|
5.5% |
5.7% |
5.4% |
6.1% |
5.2% |
6.4% |
|
Net finance costs |
(24.0) |
(20.4) |
(24.6) |
(35.0) |
(35.8) |
(32.7) |
|
(35.4) |
(34.6) |
(41.2) |
(32.5) |
(39.5) |
(26.0) |
|
Underlying PBT |
205 |
217 |
224 |
236 |
246 |
264 |
|
232 |
239 |
239 |
253 |
241 |
282 |
|
Tax on UTP and NFC |
(48.6) |
(47.9) |
(50.8) |
(58.1) |
(61.1) |
(65.8) |
|
(59.9) |
(52.7) |
(63.2) |
(56.3) |
(70.5) |
(60.2) |
|
Underlying PAT |
156 |
169 |
173 |
178 |
185 |
198 |
|
174 |
182 |
178 |
190 |
181 |
211 |
|
Non-underlying items |
4.5 |
4.2 |
0.0 |
(4.3) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
|
(40.0) |
0.0 |
(40.0) |
0.0 |
(40.0) |
0.0 |
|
Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition |
(16.0) |
(21.6) |
(30.9) |
(32.7) |
(33.2) |
(34.0) |
|
(55.2) |
(21.0) |
(55.2) |
(18.0) |
(55.2) |
(18.0) |
|
Non underlying tax |
160.5 |
5.8 |
6.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
PAT before exceptionals |
305 |
157 |
149 |
141 |
147 |
160 |
|
106 |
159 |
118 |
169 |
128 |
189 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p) |
12.6 |
13.9 |
15.4 |
16.3 |
17.6 |
19.5 |
|
16.1 |
16.6 |
16.9 |
18.2 |
17.4 |
20.1 |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
2.4 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
|
3.7 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
4.8 |
6.3 |
|
Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m) |
190 |
159 |
209 |
153 |
171 |
181 |
|
146 |
170 |
142 |
202 |
152 |
209 |
|
Closing adjusted net debt (£m) |
(178) |
(204) |
(109) |
(165) |
(42) |
81 |
|
(173) |
(149) |
(71) |
5 |
17 |
174 |
If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.