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Analysts' Consensus | Serco Group plc

Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish research on Serco shares, our understanding of current market consensus is as follows: 

Last updated on May 2022. Comprising 11 analysts.

 

 

CONSENSUS

 

RANGE

 

FY18

FY19

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

 

FY22

FY23

FY24

 

Actual

Actual

Actual

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate

 

Low

High

Low

High

Low

High

Revenue (£m)

2,837

3,248

4,425

4,162

4,331

4,523

 

4,077

4,244

4,240

4,446

4,472

4,622

> organic growth (%)

-3.1%

8.2%

10.2%

-7.9%

4.1%

4.6%

 

-11.0%

-5.9%

2.4%

6.0%

3.6%

5.0%

Underlying trading profit, 'UTP' (£m)

93

120

229

198

214

230

 

190

207

204

225

220

239

> margin (%)

3.3%

3.7%

5.2%

4.8%

4.9%

5.1%

 

4.6%

5.1%

4.7%

5.2%

4.8%

5.3%

Net finance costs

(13.9)

(21.8)

(24.0)

(26.1)

(23.9)

(21.0)

 

(36.1)

(23.9)

(34.0)

(17.7)

(27.3)

(12.7)

Underlying PBT

79

98

205

172

190

209

 

154

181

170

202

201

217

Tax on UTP and NFC

(20.6)

(24.4)

(48.6)

(43.4)

(48.2)

(54.2)

 

(48.1)

(38.5)

(55.2)

(42.6)

(61.8)

(50.6)

Underlying PAT

59

74

156

129

142

155

 

115

137

128

155

150

156

Non-underlying items

23.6

13.2

4.5

(2.7)

(2.6)

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amortisation of intangibles arising on acquisition

(4.3)

(7.5)

(16.0)

(13.9)

(13.8)

(15.2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Non underlying tax

11.8

(3.0)

160.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PAT before exceptionals

90

77

305

112

126

139

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying diluted EPS, 'UEPS' (p)

5.2

6.2

12.8

10.8

12.1

13.3

 

9.4

11.1

10.4

12.5

12.2

13.2

Dividend per share (p)

-

-

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

 

2.1

3.8

2.3

4.2

2.5

4.2

Free cash flow, 'FCF' (£m)

16

62

190

108

128

142

 

96

140

93

157

115

171

Closing adjusted net debt (£m)

(173)

(215)

(178)

(250)

(137)

(77)

 

(223)

(140)

(124)

128

(74)

5

If you have any questions, please email or telephone (+44 (0)1256 745900) the Serco Investor Relations team.

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